The Swedish government wants to get more immigrants to leave Sweden, and it hopes to achieve that goal by greatly increasing the so-called re-migration allowance, from the current 10,000 Swedish kronor (SEK) per person to 350,000 kronor.
In a way, of course, it is logical. Who leaves a carefree existence in the Eldorado of subsidies to travel home to a grim existence in Somalia, Afghanistan or Syria for a mere ten thousand? The correct answer is: One. A single person in 2023, it turned out. But money talks, and what the government now wants to do is simply to bribe non-integrated, unemployed and long-term sick immigrants to leave the country.
The investment is estimated to cost close to 2.5 billion over the next three years. “Too much money,” some say. “A win for Sweden,” say others. Still others believe that the investment will not work, simply because you earn more by staying in Sweden and continuing to receive grants, year after year, than by accepting a lump sum.
Regardless, it is far cheaper for the nation to pay these individuals and families to voluntarily leave the country than to allow them to stay. Everything has a price, and now the government wants to reduce the number of problematic and costly immigrants.
How much is 350,000?
But there is a problem. That problem is about how much SEK 350,000 really is. The same sums are very different in different countries.
In Sweden, SEK 350,000 is a lot of money, but not very much. In 2023, the average Swedish income was SEK 39,900 per month. This means that 350,000 roughly corresponds to an annual salary after tax. Getting such an addition to the coffers would, for most normal income earners, mean an extra down payment on your home, a welcome buffer before retirement or an opportunity to help the children get a better start in adulthood. But 350,000 is not a fuck off capital. It does not give us the opportunity to resign from work and spend the rest of your life drinking piña coladas on a tropical beach.
But it doesn’t matter how much a prospective returnee gets for the money in Sweden, that’s not where the money will be spent. The question is therefore how much 350,000 kronor is worth in the countries that people are supposed to return to? That’s the really interesting part.
With today’s exchange rate, 350,000 kronor corresponds to approximately 32,000 dollars. The average income in Afghanistan is around 500 dollars. How high it is in Somalia is disputed, but since four out of ten Somalis live on one dollar a day or less, it is estimated at 400 dollars. Per year. This means that an Afghan family with two adults can return to their home country with a balance equivalent to 128 Afghan annual salaries in the bank. An unaccompanied minor will have to make do with a modest 64 annual salaries.
A Swedish middle income earner would thus need 30.6 million, or more precisely 30,643,200 SEK, to get the same starting position as a returning, unaccompanied Afghan. If one were to measure oneself with what a Somali receives, the state would have to make a modest deposit of 38,304,000.
Let me ask a thoughtful question: Would you be happy if you got 30.6 million deposited into your account? I know I would be very pleased.
Apply for the grant and become the richest dude in the village
And exactly here arises the big problem that the government’s “solution” will lead to: Whoever takes up the offer, gets on the flight to Kabul or Mogadishu, collects the return allowance and takes the taxi home will be the richest dude in the village. And the rumor will spread at an average speed faster than the Airport Express Train – whoever has managed to get to Sweden returns as a king.
Do you think that more or fewer people would try to get to Sweden after that?
I bet most people would be willing to do almost anything to participate in that lottery. Paying refugee smugglers, for example. Or risk your life in a rickety rubber boat on the Mediterranean.
If the government’s goal – to reduce the number of immigrants who cannot support themselves – is to be met, then we must build walls around Sweden that would make the Berlin Wall look like cotton candy. And that is unlikely to happen.
The message that the government is sending is therefore clear: “Come to Sweden, make sure you become a burden to society – and then apply for re-migration allowance and you can return home and live in luxury.”
Was that really the intention?